OPEC+ November 29 Meeting: What to Expect as 2027 Quotas Are Decided

WarBrief Live | November 6, 2026 | Energy & Oil

On November 29, 2026, all 21 OPEC+ members meet to set the group’s 2027 oil production quotas, deciding how much each country may pump next year after a war-delayed review of what each member can actually produce. The OPEC meeting on November 29, 2026 is the most consequential oil decision of the year, because it will lock in the baselines behind every 2027 quota — and the numbers behind it show just how far paper targets have drifted from real barrels.

The meeting arrives after a month in which the oil market has swung violently. Brent crude fell 4.2% to $108.64 a barrel on November 2 as progress in Qatar-mediated talks between the United States and Iran eased war fears, then climbed back above $100 on November 6 as fresh attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz revived supply concerns. Behind the price swings sits a harder problem: the group’s members are producing far less than their quotas allow, and nobody yet knows what capacity figure each country will be judged against in 2027.

What did OPEC+ decide on November 1, and what is left for November 29?

Seven core OPEC+ members — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman — met online on Sunday, November 1, and agreed to keep December production targets unchanged at September 2026 levels, Reuters reported. It was the third consecutive monthly meeting to leave targets untouched, after the group had spent much of 2026 raising them. The seven’s combined December target stands at about 31.01 million barrels a day: Saudi Arabia 10.478 million, Russia 9.949 million, Iraq 4.431 million, Kuwait 2.676 million, Kazakhstan 1.628 million, Algeria 1.007 million and Oman 841,000.

The November 1 decision was the easy half of the group’s problem. The seven completed the phased rollback of a 1.65 million barrel-a-day voluntary cut first agreed in 2023 in September 2026, restoring paper headroom — but exports did not follow, because war around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz has kept Gulf output well below stated capacity. WarBrief explained the December hold as a pause while the group waits for the capacity review that must come first. As Rystad Energy analyst Jorge Leon told Reuters, OPEC+ “faces an extremely difficult call for 2027”, and “the much more important test comes at the November 29 ministerial meeting, when OPEC+ will decide its 2027 production framework.”

That framing matters because the November 29 meeting is a different kind of gathering. The November 1 call involved only the seven members that adjust targets month to month. On November 29, all 21 members of the wider group sit down together — the forum that sets the full production framework, not just next month’s numbers. The December hold settled the rest of 2026; November 29 decides 2027.

What is an OPEC+ baseline, and why does it decide the 2027 quotas?

A baseline is the reference production level used to calculate a member’s quota, set from assessed sustainable capacity rather than from what the member is pumping today. In plain terms, it is the number the group agrees a country could sustainably produce — and every quota for 2027 will be derived from it. Once the baselines are set, they hold, which is why the review behind them is the most fought-over document in the oil world right now.

The independent review that sets those figures was due at the end of September, but war disruption to Middle East expansion projects delayed it, and Reuters reported it is now expected by mid-November. That timing creates winners and losers. Producers whose projects were damaged could receive lower 2027 reference capacity even if their prewar potential was higher, while members whose capacity survived intact may push for a bigger share of any future unwind. The core dispute is whether baselines should reflect temporary wartime impairment, sustainable postwar capacity, or recent actual production.

Earlier baseline fights show what is at stake. Contested baseline revisions for 2024 were followed by Angola’s exit from OPEC, effective January 1, 2024 — a reminder that a quota table is also a political settlement, and that a member that feels short-changed can walk away. The lesson for November 29 is that the capacity review is not a technical formality; it is the negotiation itself, published as numbers.

By the numbers: OPEC+ heading into November 29

The gap between paper quotas and delivered oil is the single most important fact about the November 29 meeting. The table below separates confirmed figures, each backed by at least two sources, from reported figures that rest on a single source.

Caveat: CONFIRMED figures are backed by two or more independent sources; REPORTED figures rest on a single source and are attributed to it. Prices are market snapshots, not forecasts, and move intraday.

The IEA’s numbers explain why the November 29 decision is so difficult. A quota is a ceiling on what a member may pump, not a guarantee that the oil is produced, loaded or delivered. As Leon put it, OPEC+ can change targets “on paper” but cannot guarantee the barrels are produced or reach the market. The US Energy Information Administration assumes Middle East shut-ins averaging 4.5 million barrels a day in the fourth quarter of 2026 — an amount that alone outweighs the entire 1.65 million barrel-a-day unwind completed in September. Gulf producers have been exporting at roughly 60 to 80 per cent of normal levels in recent months, according to Reuters reporting, even as official targets rose.

What are the four options for the remaining cuts?

Roughly 2 million barrels a day of cuts across most members remain in force until the end of 2026, and how the group handles them matters far more than the September unwind did. Analysts see four broad options on the table for November 29, each with lopsided consequences.

• Remove quickly in 2027. Ending the cuts outright would hand members the most headroom, but a rapid release could push prices down sharply if disrupted Gulf barrels return at the same time.
• Unwind gradually on a set schedule. A phased return spreads the supply increase across 2027, giving markets time to absorb it — the approach the group used for the 1.65 million barrel-a-day layer.
• Reallocate using the new capacity baselines. The cuts could be redistributed so that members whose assessed capacity rose gain share and those whose capacity fell lose it — the option most directly tied to the mid-November review.
• Retain them to avoid a surplus. Keeping the cuts in place would support prices but frustrate members that want higher allowances, and it would leave the group carrying spare capacity into a year forecasters already expect to be oversupplied.

The choice will be shaped by the demand picture, which has weakened. OPEC itself slashed its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast by more than 70% on October 12, from 1.4 million barrels a day to 400,000 barrels a day, as Secretary-General Haitham Al Ghais told a ministerial session in Riyadh. The International Energy Agency, in its October Oil Market Report, expects world oil demand to fall 2.5 million barrels a day year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2026, while global supply is projected to rise by 7.7 million barrels a day in 2027 after a war-depressed 2026. If Gulf flows normalise, the IEA and other forecasters warn of oversupply in 2027 — the surplus the fourth option exists to prevent.

The two big forecast houses point in different directions, and the gap between them is itself a measure of the uncertainty. The EIA’s October Short-Term Energy Outlook has Brent falling from $104.69 in the fourth quarter of 2026 to $73.94 in the fourth quarter of 2027, on the assumption that constrained flows ease and OPEC crude output reaches 25.15 million barrels a day in late 2027. Goldman Sachs has raised its numbers instead: December Brent to $105 from $90, and a 2027 average of $88, with an upside case of Brent peaking at $140 and averaging about $130 if Gulf output stays 3.5 million barrels a day below its 2025 level, and a downside into the $60s if Gulf output runs 2.5 million barrels a day above 2025. Choosing between the forecasts is really a judgement about how fast Gulf barrels come back — and that judgement is exactly what the November 29 baselines will encode.

What the November 29 decision means for US/UK/EU readers

For households in the United States, Britain and the European Union, the November 29 meeting is the date that will shape fuel bills into 2027. Three channels carry the decision into everyday life.

Fuel prices. Brent is the benchmark behind petrol and diesel prices in Europe and much of the world. The spread between the EIA and Goldman Sachs forecasts — roughly $74 versus $88 on average for 2027, with extremes from the $60s to $140 — is the range of outcomes for what drivers pay at the pump. A decision that locks in war-damaged baselines and keeps the remaining cuts in place points toward the higher end; a scheduled unwind with generous baselines points toward the lower end. WarBrief tracked the November price fall and the rebound that followed, and the same forces — diplomacy, tanker security and the quota table — will drive the next move.

Heating and inflation. In Europe, where heating oil still matters for millions of homes and diesel powers freight, a sustained Brent level above $100 feeds directly into winter costs and consumer inflation, while a slide toward the EIA’s $74 path would ease both. Central banks watch the same numbers: oil is one of the fastest routes from a Middle East decision to a European inflation print.

Travel and markets. Airlines price jet fuel off the same benchmarks, so the quota decision feeds into airfares with a lag of weeks. For investors, the meeting is a binary event for energy shares and for oil-linked funds, which fell with Brent on November 2 — the US Oil Fund dropped about 2.5% that day. None of this is investment advice: the range of credible 2027 forecasts spans more than $30 a barrel, which is the market’s way of saying the outcome is genuinely uncertain. This article is educational only and is not financial advice.

What to watch before November 29

The checkpoints between now and the meeting arrive in order, and each one narrows the range of possible outcomes.

• November 10: the US Energy Information Administration publishes its next Short-Term Energy Outlook, the first official demand and supply update since the October edition that put Brent at $73.94 for late 2027.
• Mid-November: the independent capacity review is due. Watch for leaks or briefings about which members gained or lost assessed capacity — that is the real negotiation, and it will surface before the meeting itself.
• November 29: all 21 OPEC+ members meet to set the 2027 framework. Watch whether the decision covers the full year or only the first half, and whether the remaining 2 million barrels a day of cuts get a date, a schedule, or a reprieve.
• The diplomacy track: Brent fell 4.2% on November 2 on progress in Qatar-mediated talks between the United States and Iran, then rose again on tanker attacks. A ceasefire would not automatically reset the 2027 quotas — the baselines are set by the review, not by diplomacy — but it would change how fast the barrels behind them can actually flow. The US midterm results also shape the diplomacy, with a new Congress now weighing in on both Iran policy and Ukraine aid.
• The Strait of Hormuz: the sanctions and shipping picture matters as much as the quota table. Four attacks were reported in the strait over 96 hours in early November, and the conflict zones hub tracks the security situation that determines whether Gulf oil can reach buyers at all.

The November 29 meeting will not end the argument about oil in 2027. It will, for the first time since the war began, put a number on what each producer is allowed to sell next year — and those numbers, more than any statement, will tell the market whether the group believes its own capacity has survived the war.

Frequently asked questions

When is the next OPEC+ meeting?
All 21 OPEC+ members meet on November 29, 2026, to set the group’s 2027 production framework, after seven core members held December targets steady at a meeting on November 1. An independent capacity review due by mid-November will set the baselines behind the 2027 quotas.

What is an OPEC+ baseline?
A baseline is the reference production level used to calculate each member’s quota, set from assessed sustainable capacity rather than from current output. Once set, baselines hold, so war-damaged producers could receive lower 2027 allowances even if their prewar potential was higher.

Why don’t higher OPEC+ quotas mean more oil reaches the market?
A quota is a ceiling on what a member may pump, not a guarantee the oil is produced, loaded or delivered. The IEA puts OPEC+ output 5.42 million barrels a day below target in September 2026, and the EIA assumes Middle East shut-ins averaging 4.5 million barrels a day in the fourth quarter of 2026.

What happens to the remaining 2 million barrels a day of cuts?
The group has four broad options: remove them quickly in 2027, unwind them gradually on a set schedule, reallocate them using the new capacity baselines, or retain them to avoid creating a surplus. The November 29 meeting is expected to choose between them.

How will the November 29 decision affect fuel prices?
It depends on the baselines and the cuts. The EIA expects Brent to fall to $73.94 by late 2027, while Goldman Sachs sees a 2027 average of $88, with a $140 peak if Gulf output stays well below 2025 levels and a fall into the $60s if it runs above them. The decision will narrow that range, not eliminate it.

Sources

• Reuters via Global Banking and Finance: OPEC+ Keeps Oil Output Targets Steady Ahead of 2027 Quota Decision
• Reuters via The Beaver: OPEC+ Holds December Oil Output Steady, Eyes Key 2027 Production Decision
• International Energy Agency: Oil Market Report, October 2026
• Discovery Alert: OPEC+ 2027 Quotas — Why Oil’s 4% Drop Won’t Settle Supply
• Morningstar / Dow Jones: Brent Crude Climbs Above $100 as Middle East Oil Supply Risks Persist
• Nairametrics: OPEC Slashes 2026 Oil Demand Forecast by Over 70% to 400,000 bpd