Taiwan’s Nov 28 Local Elections: What to Expect as China Watches

WarBrief Live | November 11, 2026 | Event Preview

Taiwan votes on Saturday, November 28, 2026, in nine-in-one local elections covering 11,051 offices, with the Taipei mayoral race on a knife edge, a national nuclear referendum on the same ballot, and Beijing watching every result.

What are Taiwan’s nine-in-one local elections?

“Nine-in-one” means nine categories of local office are elected on the same day, across Taiwan’s 22 cities and counties. The ballot runs from the top of local government down to the most local posts of all: six special municipality mayors, 16 county magistrates and city mayors, 919 councillors, 204 township and district chiefs, 2,126 citizen representatives and 7,780 village chiefs. In total, 11,051 officials will be elected, according to Taiwan’s Central Election Commission (CEC), and 19,695 candidates have registered to contest those posts.

About 19.65 million people are eligible to vote, out of a population of roughly 23.4 million. Polls open at 8 a.m. and close at 4 p.m. on November 28, and paper counting begins as soon as they close. The CEC’s statutory schedule also sets a ten-day polling blackout from November 18, during which publishing or quoting polls is prohibited and can draw fines of NT$500,000 to NT$5,000,000.

The stakes are higher than the “local” label suggests. For President Lai Ching-te’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), the vote is the first comprehensive nationwide political test since it took office in May 2024, and it governs with a divided Legislative Yuan. The opposition Kuomintang (KMT) won 15 county and city leadership posts in the 2018 local elections and 14 in 2022, giving it a strong local power base around the DPP-led central government. Thirteen local government leaders are certain to hand over power this time. And since December 2024, when the opposition-controlled legislature raised local governments’ share of central revenue from 25 per cent to 40 per cent, the offices at stake control considerably more money than they did at the last round.

Why is the Taipei mayoral race the one to watch?

The most closely watched contest is in Taipei, where KMT incumbent Chiang Wan-an faces the DPP’s Puma Shen. Chiang is a likely contender in the 2028 presidential race, which makes his result a national story in its own right. The DPP has thrown its full weight behind Shen, building what supporters call a “Puma O’Shen wave” that has gained considerable momentum in recent weeks.

The polls tell a story of a race that has narrowed fast. TVBS had Chiang 28 points ahead in May and eight ahead in early October. A United Daily News poll taken October 20-25 put Shen ahead, 45 to 41, within the margin of error, although 48 per cent of respondents still expected Chiang to win. A separate poll released October 20 by the Green-leaning Taipei Trust in Democracy Association put Shen at 50.3 per cent against Chiang’s 33.3 per cent. That last figure comes from a single poll by a pollster aligned with the DPP’s side of politics, so it should be read as a snapshot, not a forecast. Taken together, the polls show a contest that was comfortable for Chiang in the spring and is now genuinely open.

Taipei matters beyond its own boundaries. Three of Taiwan’s five directly elected presidents first ran a big city: Chen Shui-bian and Ma Ying-jeou in Taipei, and Lai himself in Tainan. A Shen win in the capital would be the DPP’s biggest local-election prize in years; a Chiang hold would keep the KMT’s most plausible 2028 candidate on track. Either way, the result will shape the field for the presidential election about 13 months later.

What is at stake in New Taipei City and the south?

New Taipei City, Taiwan’s most populous city, is the KMT’s other big vulnerability. The party has governed it for more than 20 years, but the seat is open this time, and the race is close. The Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) chairman stood aside for the KMT’s Lee Shu-chuan, who faces the DPP’s Su Chiao-hui. Losing New Taipei would cost the KMT its largest local stronghold.

In the south, the DPP is defending ground it has held for a generation. It has held Tainan since 1997 and Kaohsiung since 1998, apart from a brief KMT spell under Han Kuo-yu. In Kaohsiung, Lai Jui-lung of the DPP faces Ko Chih-en of the KMT, and both camps have brought in big names: Vice President Hsiao Bi-khim has campaigned with Lai, while Ko Wen-je, founder of the TPP, has campaigned with the KMT candidate. In Tainan, Chen Ting-fei of the DPP faces Hsieh Lung-chieh of the KMT, whom she has beaten in five previous contests.

The pattern is familiar: local elections tend to go against the party holding the presidency. The DPP’s challenge is to break that pattern while defending its southern heartland and attacking in the north. The KMT’s challenge is to hold its northern base while its local advantage is tested by a governing party fighting for its political life.

By the numbers: Taiwan’s November 28 vote

Figures marked CONFIRMED come from two or more sources or from an official announcement. Figures marked REPORTED come from a single poll or outlet and should be treated as snapshots, not outcomes.

What is Referendum Case No. 22 about?

On the same day and during the same hours, voters will also answer a national referendum, Case No. 22: “Do you support the government using nuclear power to revitalise the economy, thereby abolishing the ‘nuclear-free homeland’ energy policy?” For the proposal to pass, valid votes in favour must amount to at least a quarter of all eligible voters and outnumber votes against.

It is Taiwan’s fourth nuclear referendum since 2018. The last, in August 2025, asked about restarting the Maanshan plant. The energy question cuts across party lines in a way the mayoral races do not: Taiwan’s industry, including its semiconductor sector, needs stable and affordable power, while the DPP’s long-standing nuclear-free-homeland policy has been a point of identity for the party. A yes vote would not settle the technical questions around Taiwan’s energy mix, but it would give the government a popular mandate to move away from the nuclear-free policy, and it would hand the opposition a powerful talking point whichever party wins the mayoral races.

What is China doing around Taiwan as the vote nears?

Beijing is watching the election closely, and its military activity around the island has stayed at the elevated level seen through the autumn. Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense (MND) reported 11 PLA aircraft sorties, 10 PLA Navy ships and three official ships around Taiwan in the 24 hours to 6 a.m. on November 7, with nine of the aircraft crossing the Taiwan Strait median line. The following day’s count was four sorties, six navy ships and two official ships. Earlier in November, the Taipei Times reported 49 Chinese military aircraft detected in a single 24-hour period. The ChinaPower Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies recorded 3,764 PLA aircraft incursions into Taiwan’s air defence identification zone in 2025, up 22.4 per cent on 2024.

The naval picture is equally busy. On October 28, Taiwan’s National Security Council mapped 53 Chinese vessels, 34 of them warships including the carrier Liaoning, arrayed in an arc stretching from southern Japan through waters off Taiwan to the Philippines. The Institute for the Study of War assessed on November 6 that China may be running a major unannounced exercise simulating Taiwan’s isolation, citing more than 100 PLA Navy and China Coast Guard vessels in the western Pacific. That is an assessment by a research institute, not a declaration by Taiwan’s defence ministry, and it should be read as such. WarBrief’s earlier reporting on China’s live-fire drills around Taiwan in October sets out the pattern this activity fits into.

The election is also a target for information operations. Taiwan’s National Security Bureau (NSB) told lawmakers in a report submitted on October 20 that it had collected more than 2.5 million items of disputed information from January to September 2026, up about 48 per cent from more than 1.69 million a year earlier, and that China had expanded its use of AI to manipulate information with the aim of influencing the November 28 elections. The bureau said cyberattacks on the government service network averaged about 2.58 million a day as of September, reaching 185.6 million in July and 106.4 million in August. The bureau identified six forms of election interference: illicit funding, hosting supporters on trips to China, offering cheap flights so Taiwanese people living in China can return to vote, spreading disinformation, underground election betting, and hacking specific targets to steal election information. Beijing has previously denied interfering in Taiwanese elections, and China’s Taiwan Affairs Office did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the report. The interference claims are the NSB’s; they are reported here as such, not as independently confirmed facts. For the legal dimension of Beijing’s pressure campaign, see WarBrief’s explainer on China’s legal warfare against Taiwan.

What Taiwan’s local elections mean for US, UK and EU readers

For American readers, the vote is a readout on the government Washington relies on as its main partner in the Taiwan Strait. A strong DPP result would strengthen President Lai’s hand in the months before the 2028 presidential race; a poor one would raise questions about his mandate just as the United States weighs the timing of a pending Taiwan arms package, which the South China Morning Post reported in September may be held back until after the Trump-Xi meeting at the APEC summit in Shenzhen. Taiwan’s semiconductor industry also means any cross-strait tension around polling day would be felt in global technology supply chains and, potentially, in markets. That is an educational observation, not financial advice.

For readers in Britain and the European Union, the election is a test of democratic resilience in a place European governments increasingly treat as a partner, not just a flashpoint. The European Union has no formal diplomatic ties with Taiwan, but its interest in the island’s security and its chip supply has grown steadily, and a free and fair vote conducted under visible military pressure is itself a signal. For travellers, there is no reason to expect disruption: the vote is a domestic democratic exercise, and Taiwan’s elections are routinely well organised.

Local elections rarely move global markets on their own. The risk to watch is not the result but the context: a cross-strait incident in the days around polling day, or a disputed result in a knife-edge race like Taipei’s, would change the picture quickly. That is why the APEC leaders’ meeting in Shenzhen, covered in WarBrief’s APEC Shenzhen 2026 preview, matters to this story: it takes place on November 18-19, ten days before the vote, and anything said about Taiwan there will frame the final stretch of the campaign.

What to watch next before November 28

Three dates matter between now and polling day. First, the polling blackout begins on November 18: from that point, no new polls may be published or quoted, which means the last public readings of the Taipei race will arrive in the coming week. Watch whether any final poll confirms the tightening trend or restores Chiang’s lead.

Second, the APEC leaders’ meeting in Shenzhen on November 18-19 brings Donald Trump and Xi Jinping together ten days before the vote. Any public language about Taiwan, arms sales or cross-strait stability will be read in Taipei as a signal about the months ahead, and it will dominate the final days of campaigning.

Third, polling day itself on November 28. Polls close at 4 p.m. and paper counting begins immediately, so the shape of the results should be clear on the night. The races to watch first are Taipei, New Taipei City and Kaohsiung, followed by the referendum result, which needs that quarter of eligible voters to pass. WarBrief’s conflict zones hub will carry updates as the results come in, and our explainer on whether AI could decide a future US-China war over Taiwan sets out why the island’s politics matter far beyond its shores.

Frequently asked questions

When are Taiwan’s local elections in 2026?
Saturday, November 28, 2026. Polls are open from 8 a.m. to 4 p.m., and voters in all 22 cities and counties elect nine categories of local office on the same day, a total of 11,051 officials. A national referendum on nuclear power is held on the same day.

Who is leading the Taipei mayoral race?
The polls disagree. A United Daily News poll taken October 20-25 put the DPP’s Puma Shen ahead of KMT incumbent Chiang Wan-an, 45 to 41, within the margin of error. A poll from the Green-leaning Taipei Trust in Democracy Association put Shen further ahead, 50.3 to 33.3. TVBS had Chiang ahead by eight points in early October. No poll shows a clear, settled leader.

What is Referendum Case No. 22?
It asks voters whether they support the government using nuclear power to revitalise the economy, thereby abolishing the “nuclear-free homeland” energy policy. It is Taiwan’s fourth nuclear referendum since 2018. To pass, valid yes votes must reach at least a quarter of all eligible voters and outnumber votes against.

Why do Taiwan’s local elections matter beyond Taiwan?
They are the first nationwide test of President Lai Ching-te’s DPP since May 2024, they will shape the field for the 2028 presidential election, and they take place ten days after the APEC leaders’ meeting in Shenzhen, under sustained Chinese military pressure and an information campaign Taiwan’s security bureau says targets the vote. Taiwan’s chip industry means instability there reaches global supply chains.

Sources

• Taiwan.md: 2026 Taiwan Local Elections
• Lianhe Zaobao: Will Taiwan’s local elections redraw its Blue-north, Green-south political map?
• StratNews Global: Taiwan’s November 28 Local Elections And Why They Matter
• Taipei Times: 2026 Elections: Chiang, Shen pitch sports and welfare agendas
• Taiwan Ministry of National Defense: PLA activities in the waters and airspace around Taiwan
• BusinessWorld (Reuters): Taiwan security agency flags rise in Chinese disinformation ahead of local elections