Trump Graham Act Waiver: Sanctions Pause Explained (2026)

WarBrief Live | October 17, 2026 | Sanctions & Diplomacy

On October 16, 2026, US President Donald Trump signed an executive order implementing the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 — and in the same order, waived most of what it would have done. This is the trump graham act waiver explained 2026: the 500% duties on Russian goods and the 100% tariffs threatened against the biggest buyers of Russian oil and gas are formally in place but suspended, days before an October 18 deadline would have switched them on. What investigators and reporters have confirmed, and what remains unverified, is laid out below.

What is the Trump Graham Act waiver?

The waiver is an executive action, signed October 16, 2026, that puts the Graham Act’s enforcement machinery on hold. The Act itself — passed by Congress on September 16 and signed into law by Trump two days later — was one of the toughest Russia sanctions packages ever written, as we detailed in our Graham Act October 18 deadline breakdown: tariffs of up to 100% on all goods from the five largest importers of Russian crude oil or gas, duties of up to 500% on Russian goods, and sanctions on Russian officials, banks and the shadow fleet of tankers that carry Moscow’s energy.

The law was named for the late Senator Lindsey Graham, the Republican who co-drafted it with Democratic Senator Richard Blumenthal and who died in July 2026 after returning from a visit to Ukraine, Al Jazeera reported. But the legislation contained its own escape hatch: Section 115, which lets the president waive any sanctions, restrictions or duties if he certifies to Congress that doing so serves US national interests. Trump’s order invokes exactly that provision, stating: I am hereby waiving the application of such sanctions, restrictions, and duties provided for in the Graham Act.

What is confirmed: the executive order exists, was signed October 16, and was published by the White House on October 17. Its text explicitly cites Section 115 and a national-interest certification to Congress. What is unverified: the private basis for that certification — the White House said Trump submitted an explanatory report to Congress, but its contents have not been made public as of October 17, 2026.

What exactly did the waiver change — and what did it leave alone?

Reading the order itself, signed October 16 and published on whitehouse.gov, the structure is two halves: build the tariff architecture, then suspend it. Section 2 of the order formally imposes the duties the Act authorized: a 500% ad valorem increase on goods from the Russian Federation; a 100% increase on goods from the five largest importers of Russian crude oil or gas that make new purchases on or after October 18, 2026; and a 100% increase on goods from the top five facilitators of Russian oil sanctions evasion. The US Trade Representative is tasked with monitoring purchases and evasion, in consultation with the secretaries of State, Treasury and Energy, and reporting to the president — a live file alongside our Sanctions Tracker.

Section 4 then waives nearly all of it:

• Section 4(a): all duties under Graham Act Sections 112 and 113 — the tariff engine itself — are waived under Section 115(a).
• Section 4(b): the Section 102(d) sanctions and restrictions are waived, but the order states explicitly that nothing in it touches sanctions imposed under earlier executive orders — including the national-emergency measures Trump continued on March 24, 2026, covering Russian harmful foreign activities.
• Section 4(c): sanctions and restrictions under Sections 102(a), 102(e), 103, 104, 105, 106, 107, 108, 109, 110, 111 and 117 are waived.
• Section 4(d): the waivers have no fixed end date — they remain in effect until the president or the secretary of state, consulting Treasury and the Trade Representative, determines that further action is appropriate.

In practical terms, Washington built a loaded sanctions gun, pointed it at the October 18 deadline, and then safetied it — while keeping its hand on the safety.

By the numbers: the waiver’s moving parts

Caveat: figures marked CONFIRMED appear in the executive order itself or in two or more reputable outlets. Motives and behind-the-scenes reasoning are attributed to their sources and treated as reported, not confirmed.

Why waive a sanctions law you signed a month ago?

The immediate backdrop is diesel. About a week before the waiver, Trump said the United States had struck a deal with Russia to buy Russian diesel, aimed at lowering global fuel prices — a move that drew criticism from both parties, with lawmakers warning it would help Russia’s war effort without reliably moving prices, Al Jazeera reported. Democratic Representative Don Beyer said he and others had warned Trump would use the waiver this way and called on Congress to fix this flawed law so it truly supports Ukraine — reported by Al Jazeera.

Trade analysts add more layers. The Global Trade Research Initiative’s Ajay Srivastava told The Hindu BusinessLine that Washington also agreed not to raise tariffs on China until January 10 under a deal reached during President Xi Jinping’s US visit last month — so with China shielded and the US itself buying Russian diesel, targeting India alone would look like double standards and could derail ongoing bilateral trade negotiations. GTRI’s assessment is analyst commentary, not an official explanation — it is reported here as attributed analysis, not confirmed fact.

Domestic politics are the other pressure. With US midterm elections scheduled for November 3, an AP-NORC poll released October 1 found Americans disapprove of Trump’s handling of the Iran war and blame him for higher prices — and diesel and heating costs are the most politically sensitive prices of all. Pausing tariffs that could have pushed fuel and import costs higher in the final weeks before the vote is, whatever the stated national-interest rationale, also an electoral calculation. That reading is widely shared among commentators but is analytical inference, not a stated White House position.

What does the waiver mean for India and China?

For New Delhi, the relief is real and immediate. India is among the world’s largest buyers of Russian crude and gas, and under the Act it faced the prospect of 100% duties on its goods entering the US if its qualifying purchases continued past the deadline. The waiver removes that threat — and it lands days before Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s visit to India, PTI reported.

India’s government had been lobbying directly: External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar raised the Graham Act with Rubio on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York last month, explaining that Indian refineries are configured largely for medium sour crude — supplied by Middle Eastern and Russian producers — while Venezuelan crude is too heavy and US light crude would need blending. With Middle Eastern supplies disrupted by the Iran war, India has depended on Russian crude to keep its economy running. That context comes from Indian officials’ briefings reported by PTI; it is presented here as reported, not independently verified.

China receives the same tariff relief on paper, though it already had tariff protection under its January 10 arrangement with Washington. The lasting message for both capitals, per GTRI’s analysis, is that the relief is conditional: the waiver can be withdrawn, the Trade Representative keeps monitoring Russian energy purchases, and the tariff threat stays on the table as American negotiating leverage.

How has Ukraine responded to the waiver?

Poorly. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had already called the US-Russia diesel deal a weak decision, and Kyiv has resumed strikes on Russian oil refineries — effectively ending the Trump-brokered energy ceasefire that, Zelensky said, Russia never honored, the Associated Press reported via Arab News. Trump, in a Newsmax interview, branded the renewed refinery strikes a disgrace, arguing they push world oil prices higher — a characterization reported by the Malay Mail. Arriving in Brussels on October 16 to meet EU leaders, Zelensky said Ukraine was so thankful for European support, which he called the leadership of real leaders, as his relationship with Washington deteriorated.

At home, criticism crossed party lines. Senator Elizabeth Warren, who voted against the Graham Act in August, said waiving the sanctions thumbed Trump’s nose at Congress’s direction to raise pressure on the Kremlin and enabled Russia’s war — reported by the Washington Examiner. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, speaking in Brussels on October 16, condemned Russia’s ceasefire violations and confirmed the EU is preparing a 22nd sanctions package, building on the 1,646-measure package adopted October 12, insisting no existing EU sanctions will be lifted — reported by Dagens. The transatlantic split is now public: Washington pauses pressure on Moscow while Brussels tightens it.

What the Graham Act waiver means for US, UK and EU readers

Fuel prices (US): the waiver plus the diesel deal signal that the administration is prioritizing pump and heating prices ahead of the November 3 midterms. If Russian diesel flows materialize, US diesel and home-heating costs could ease; but Iran-war disruption of Middle Eastern supplies — oil has touched $106 this month, as covered in our winter fuel bills briefing — remains the bigger driver, and the waiver does nothing to fix that.

Trade and markets (US/UK): India escaping 100% US duties keeps supply chains and trade talks intact — a relief for importers and for US-India negotiations. But GTRI’s warning stands: the relief is conditional, the USTR is watching, and the threat can return. Businesses pricing contracts around Russian-energy-linked suppliers should treat the waiver as a pause, not a settlement.

Security (UK/EU): Europe is now openly diverging from Washington. The EU’s 22nd sanctions package is being prepared while the US waives its own toughest measures — a split Moscow will try to exploit. For UK and EU readers, expect the practical divide to widen: more EU sanctions, more Russian energy rerouting toward Asia, and more Ukrainian strikes on the refineries Washington would rather see running.

What to watch next on the Graham Act waiver

• Rubio’s India visit: what, if anything, Washington extracts in return for the relief — India has long promised to diversify away from Russian crude; the waiver buys negotiating time on both sides.
• USTR monitoring reports: the first official assessments of Russian energy purchases could trigger a partial reimposition — or extend the pause.
• Congressional pushback: Representative Beyer’s call to fix the law may gain Republican co-sponsors if the waiver looks like a blank check — though any fix would have to pass over a presidential veto threat.
• November 3 midterms: if fuel prices fall, the administration will claim the strategy worked; if they rise anyway, the waiver will be framed as capitulation to Moscow.
• The October 18 date itself: the duties were structured to bite new Russian energy purchases made from that date. The waiver means nothing changed legally on the 18th — but watch whether the USTR quietly tightens monitoring in its place.

Different perspectives on the waiver

The administration’s case is straightforward: the certification argues the waiver serves US national interests — lower fuel prices, preserved trade negotiations with India and China, and leverage retained rather than spent. Supporters add that sanctions that collide with a diesel deal and an Iran-war energy crunch were self-defeating. Critics — Zelensky, Warren, Beyer, and EU leaders — counter that Trump defused the one coercive tool Congress built specifically to force Putin toward negotiations, and did so within a month of signing it. The split is less about whether the tariff threat was real than about what suspending it signals: pragmatic statecraft, or capitulation.

Frequently asked questions

What is the Trump Graham Act waiver?
It is the October 16, 2026 executive order in which President Trump implemented the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 and simultaneously waived most of its duties, sanctions and restrictions under the Act’s Section 115, certifying to Congress that the waiver serves US national interests.

Which Graham Act sanctions did Trump waive — and which stayed?
Waived: the 500% duty increase on Russian goods, 100% duties on the top five Russian energy importers and top five evasion facilitators, and sanctions/restrictions under Sections 102(a), 102(d), 102(e), 103–111 and 117. Not waived: all earlier Russia sanctions imposed under pre-existing executive orders — the order explicitly states those remain fully in force.

How long does the Graham Act waiver last?
There is no fixed expiry. Section 4(d) of the order says the waivers remain in effect until the president or the secretary of state, consulting Treasury and the Trade Representative, determines that further action is appropriate. The US Trade Representative continues monitoring Russian energy purchases, so the threat can be reactivated.

Why does the waiver matter for India?
India is one of the world’s biggest buyers of Russian crude. The Act threatened 100% US duties on Indian goods if its Russian oil purchases continued past October 18. The waiver removes that threat just before Secretary Rubio’s India visit — significant because Indian refineries are configured for medium sour crude from the Middle East and Russia, and Middle Eastern supplies are disrupted by the Iran war.

Does the waiver end sanctions pressure on Russia?
No. All pre-existing US sanctions on Russia stay in place, the EU is preparing a 22nd sanctions package, and the Graham Act’s suspended tariffs can be reimposed — the architecture remains on the books with a presidential hand on the switch.

Sources

• The White House: Implementing the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 (Executive Order, October 16, 2026)
• Al Jazeera: Trump puts on hold new Russia sanctions he signed into law
• The Tribune (PTI): Trump waives Russia-related US sanctions that threatened 100% tariffs on India, China
• Arab News (AP): Trump signs executive order waiving new Russia sanctions, tariffs
• Anadolu Agency: Trump waives tariffs, many sanctions under new Russia sanctions law