RESOLVED Global

Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict: Post-War Realignment and Security Guarantees

low

LOC:

analytics

Conflict Intensity Index

low 15%

Overview

Following a闪电 military offensive in September 2023, Azerbaijan regained full control of Nagorno-Karabakh, ending three decades of ethnic Armenian self-rule. The operation prompted the exodus of over 100,000 ethnic Armenians and fundamentally altered the security dynamics of the South Caucasus.

Conflict Classification

Type: Territorial dispute with ethnic dimensions (post-conflict phase)
Key Events: 2020 war, 2023 offensive, Armenian displacement
Primary Actors: Azerbaijan, Armenia, Russia (peacekeepers)

Historical Context

The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict originated in the final years of the Soviet Union, with the Armenian-majority region declaring independence from Azerbaijan in 1991. The subsequent war resulted in Azerbaijani defeat and Armenian control over the region and surrounding territories.

2023 Offensive

Azerbaijani Military Operation

On September 19, 2023, Azerbaijan launched a rapid military offensive against Nagorno-Karabakh, overwhelming Armenian defenses within 24 hours. The operation resulted in the dissolution of the self-declared Republic of Artsakh.

Armenian Displacement

Over 100,000 ethnic Armenians, representing virtually the entire population, fled to Armenia within days. The displacement represents one of the largest forced migrations in recent European history.

Peace Process

Armenia-Azerbaijan normalization talks ongoing
Russian peacekeeping mandate ended with Azerbaijani takeover
European Union monitoring mission deployed to Armenian border
Discussions on transportation corridors and border demarcation

Regional Security Implications

The conflict resolution has shifted the balance of power in the South Caucasus, with Azerbaijan emerging as the dominant military power. Turkey support for Azerbaijan has strengthened Ankara regional influence.