Oil Above $100: Why the No-Strike Sunday Didn’t Calm the Market

WarBrief Live | October 26, 2026 | Energy and Oil

Oil prices above $100 did not fall on October 26, 2026 because the danger passed. Brent crude and United States West Texas Intermediate (WTI) both slipped about 2% on Monday morning, yet both benchmarks stayed above $100 a barrel, and the reasons traders gave for the dip were as much about timing and positioning as about peace. A weekend of Qatari mediation in Tehran, a public ruling-out of a strike for the day by United States President Donald Trump, and an overbought technical signal combined to take some heat out of a rally — while attacks on Saudi Arabia continued and the market still priced in the possibility of escalation after the November 3 midterm elections.

What happened to oil prices on Monday, October 26?

According to Reuters reporting on Monday, Brent crude futures were down $2.21, or 1.89%, at $114.51 a barrel by 0426 GMT, while United States West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down $2.23, or 2.16%, at $101.04. Later morning readings varied slightly by time and data provider — around $114.60 for Brent and $101.10 for WTI in other Monday reports — but the direction and the scale were the same: a fall of roughly $2 from Friday’s close, leaving both benchmarks firmly in triple digits.

That Friday close is the context for Monday’s move. Brent settled at $116.72 a barrel on Friday, its highest close since late April, while WTI settled at $103.27. Both benchmarks had risen nearly $3 on Friday after Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia stoked concern about energy supplies. Over the previous week, Brent finished up 6% and WTI up 2.3%, taking prices to near six-month highs. Monday’s decline therefore gave back only part of the previous week’s surge.

Two forces pulled in opposite directions on Monday morning. On one side, hopes of easing hostilities: Qatari mediators travelled to Tehran on Sunday as part of an effort to de-escalate regional tensions in coordination with the United States, according to an official briefed on the situation cited by Reuters. On the other side, continued fighting: the Iran-backed Houthis said they struck an airport and oil facilities in Saudi Arabia on Saturday, and Saudi Arabia said on Sunday that it had intercepted more missiles and drones. Traders were, in effect, pricing a diplomatic opening without removing the war premium.

By the numbers: Monday’s oil market

The table below separates figures confirmed by two or more independent reports from figures reported by a single data provider or outlet. Intraday prices move, so the 0426 GMT Reuters readings are used as the reference point.

Metric	Figure	Source
Brent crude, Monday October 26 (0426 GMT)	$114.51, down $2.21 (1.89%) — CONFIRMED	Reuters
WTI crude, Monday October 26 (0426 GMT)	$101.04, down $2.23 (2.16%) — CONFIRMED	Reuters
Brent close, Friday October 23	$116.72, highest close since late April — CONFIRMED	Hindu BusinessLine; Gulf News
WTI close, Friday October 23	$103.27 — CONFIRMED	Hindu BusinessLine
Weekly change to Friday	Brent up 6%; WTI up 2.3% — CONFIRMED	Reuters
Brent 14-day relative strength index, Friday	Above 74, over the 70 level some traders treat as overbought — CONFIRMED	Bloomberg
Murban crude, Monday	About $118, up 3.16% — REPORTED	Gulf News, citing OilPrice.com
Goldman Sachs Brent risk premium	Nearly $25 a barrel — REPORTED (mid-October Goldman Sachs research, as reported)	BusinessToday; InvestingLive
Goldman Sachs Brent forecast	$90 in December 2026; $80 average in 2027 — REPORTED (mid-October research, as reported)	BusinessToday

Caveat: CONFIRMED means the figure appears in two or more independent reports; REPORTED means it rests on a single research note or data provider as cited, and should be read as an estimate or a single-source market reading rather than a settled market fact.

Why did prices fall if the attacks continued?

Three explanations, all visible on Monday, fit together better than any single one. First, diplomacy moved the headline risk. The Sunday trip by Qatari mediators to Tehran, coordinated with the United States, gave traders a reason to trim positions built on the expectation of an imminent strike. President Donald Trump had also said there would be no strike on that day, while telling Fox News that it was getting to be decision time on whether to pursue a deal with Tehran or to finish the confrontation. Neither statement resolved the standoff, but both lowered the probability traders attached to an immediate escalation.

Second, the market was technically stretched. Bloomberg reported that Brent’s 14-day relative strength index topped 74 on Friday, above the level of 70 that some traders see as signalling a pullback. An overbought reading does not mean oil is overvalued in any fundamental sense; it means prices rose fast enough that profit-taking becomes likely on any softer headline. Monday supplied that headline.

Third, positioning, not physical supply, drove the intraday move. Gulf News, reporting OilPrice.com data, noted that the precise trigger for Monday’s movement was not immediately clear, and that profit-taking after a 6% weekly Brent gain was a common explanation. In other words, some traders sold because they had made money last week, not because Saudi exports had suddenly become safer. That distinction matters for what happens next: a position-driven dip can reverse in a single headline, while a supply-driven fall would need evidence that shipments are actually safer.

Vandana Hari, founder of oil market analysis provider Vanda Insights, captured the mood in the Reuters report:

“Concerns over renewed military hostilities in the Middle East, which drove much of last week’s crude rally, have eased this morning, but the reprieve may prove temporary. We therefore expect volatility to remain elevated, with risks still skewed to the upside.”

Her second point is the one traders kept returning to: President Donald Trump has not dispelled market expectations that strikes on Iran could still follow after the November 3 midterm elections. A one-day ruling-out is not a policy change, and the market is treating the post-election window as live risk.

Why did Murban rise while Brent and WTI fell?

Murban is the exception that explains the rule. Gulf News reported that Murban climbed 3.16% to about $118 on Monday, roughly $3.40 above Brent, after rising nearly 4% on Friday to $114.40. Murban loads at Fujairah, outside the Strait of Hormuz, and the premium it commands reflects scarcity value: barrels that can avoid the strait are worth more whenever Hormuz shipping looks riskier.

The weekend backdrop shows why that premium widened. The Houthis said on Saturday that they attacked Saudi oil facilities and airports, including an Aramco facility in Yanbu, the Rabigh refinery and King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh. Saudi Arabia has not confirmed those reports. The Saudi-led coalition said it intercepted two ballistic missiles fired toward Yanbu and Taif, and on Sunday said it intercepted more Houthi drones and missiles aimed at Riyadh, Khamis Mushait and the southern region. Gulf News notes that no hit on oil infrastructure has been independently confirmed. The market, in short, is paying for the risk of a hit, not for a confirmed one — and it is paying most for barrels that bypass the chokepoint altogether.

Yanbu matters beyond the headlines because it is the Red Sea outlet of the pipeline that replaced Saudi Arabia’s Hormuz exports. A threat to Yanbu therefore threatens the bypass itself, which helps explain why traders did not treat Monday’s Brent and WTI dip as a broad all-clear. United States Central Command chief Admiral Brad Cooper flew over the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, as United States Central Command said its forces had helped partners export more than 1.5 billion barrels since the summer, according to Gulf News. That is a statement of escort capacity, not a guarantee of safe passage, and traders priced it accordingly.

What do the Goldman Sachs premium and the $90 forecast actually mean?

In mid-October research reported by BusinessToday, Goldman Sachs estimated that Brent spot prices include a risk premium of nearly $25 a barrel, reflecting the possibility of further supply disruption and inventory draws if the conflict escalates. The bank raised its December 2026 Brent forecast to $90 a barrel, from $85, and expects an average of $80 in 2027. Its base case, in the words of co-head of global commodities research Daan Struyven and his team, is that continued adaptation of Middle East supply will eventually reduce crude prices, while potential renewed escalation still poses significant net upside risk.

Read together, those two numbers tell a coherent story. A $114 Brent price with a $25 war premium implies a market that thinks underlying supply and demand, without the conflict, would support something closer to $90 — which is also where Goldman Sachs expects Brent to trade in December if adaptation continues and escalation does not widen. The bank also reported that Persian Gulf exports have recovered to around their 2025 average since late September, including an estimated 4 million barrels a day of untracked shipments, and that the global market was nearly balanced in September, with a deficit of only 0.3 million barrels a day against 7.2 million in March. It expects a surplus from the fourth quarter of 2026.

None of that makes Monday’s $114.51 a forecast. It makes it a risk price. If diplomacy holds and exports keep adapting, the premium can fade and prices can drift toward the bank’s December view. If a Saudi facility is hit, or if strikes resume after the elections, the premium can widen again from an already elevated base. Brent has still surged almost 90% in 2026 so far, according to Bloomberg, which means the market has a long way to fall before it looks like the market of early 2026 — and a short way to rise before it revisits Friday’s highs.

What the $100-plus oil market means for US, UK and EU readers

For readers in the United States, the United Kingdom and the European Union, triple-digit crude does not arrive at the petrol pump the next morning, but it does set the direction of travel. Retail fuel prices follow crude with a lag, and diesel, aviation fuel and heating costs are more sensitive than petrol because they track crude and refining margins more closely. Transport, freight and food distribution costs follow the same chain, which is why sustained crude above $100 tends to show up first in logistics and airline surcharges and only later, and unevenly, in headline inflation.

The timing also matters for monetary policy. Bloomberg noted that investors are braced for several major events in the days ahead, with Israeli elections due on Tuesday, October 27, followed by the United States midterms on November 3, and a Federal Reserve policy decision in between. Higher energy prices complicate that decision: they push up inflation while simultaneously squeezing households and businesses, leaving central banks with no painless option. That is one reason Monday’s $2 dip, welcome as it is, did not move broader market sentiment decisively — the inflation question is still open.

For travellers, the picture is mixed and region-specific. Gulf News reported that Riyadh’s King Khalid airport reopened terminals 1 and 2 on Sunday, October 25, after a two-week closure, but that the Houthis say it remains a target, and that several airlines have cancelled or adjusted Saudi services, with some suspensions running into November and December. European routes are returning in parallel, with Lufthansa restarting Dubai-Munich and Frankfurt services on October 25. Readers planning travel through the Gulf should check their carrier’s current status rather than relying on a route map from last week.

This article explains market movements for information only. It is not financial advice, and it does not recommend buying or selling any security, commodity or fuel product. Prices cited are market readings at the times stated and change through the trading day.

Different perspectives on Monday’s dip

Diplomacy-first analysts read Monday as evidence that mediation still has room to work. Qatari engagement, Iranian statements that messages are still being passed through intermediaries, and a United States president publicly ruling out a strike for the day all point, in this view, to a negotiating track that has not closed even as military preparations continue. The risk in this reading is overconfidence: every element of it is reversible in a day.

Supply-risk analysts read the same Monday differently. They note that attacks continued through the weekend, that no Saudi facility hit has been independently confirmed but neither has safety been established, and that Murban’s rise shows the market still pays a premium for Hormuz-free barrels. In this view, Brent at $114 is not expensive for the risk it carries; it is the price of a market that has learned, since February, that shipping disruptions can arrive without warning.

Technical and positioning analysts offer a third reading that does not require choosing between the first two. Brent’s RSI above 74 made a pullback likely, profit-taking after a 6% week made it timely, and the diplomatic headlines supplied the trigger. On that reading, Monday tells us more about how crowded the long trade had become than about whether the war is ending. All three readings agree on one point: one quiet morning does not make a trend.

What to watch next in the oil market

The calendar gives traders a sequence of decision points, not a single verdict. Israel votes on Tuesday, October 27. The Federal Reserve sets monetary policy in the days that follow. The United States holds midterm elections on November 3, the date traders keep citing as the point after which strike expectations rise again. Any confirmed strike on a Saudi oil facility, any Hormuz shipping incident, or any breakdown in the Qatari mediation channel would be a fresh upside trigger; conversely, a sustained run of days without attacks, or a concrete diplomatic step beyond mediation visits, would test whether the $25 premium can start to fade.

Three indicators will tell readers which way the market is breaking before the headlines do. First, the Brent-WTI spread and the Murban premium: if Murban’s premium over Brent narrows, Hormuz risk is genuinely easing; if it widens again, it is not. Second, weekly inventory and export data: Goldman Sachs’ surplus case depends on Gulf exports staying near their 2025 average. Third, the RSI and Friday closes: a Brent close back above $116.72 would erase Monday’s dip entirely, while a close below $110 would suggest the overbought correction has further to run. Watch the closes, not the intraday noise.

WarBrief Live will update this story as the week’s election, policy and market data land. For the decision-window angle — what happens after November 3 — see our analysis of President Donald Trump’s post-midterms Iran strike window. For why oil reached $117 last week, see why oil hit $117, and for the shipping chokepoint behind the premium, see the Hormuz shipping standoff explained. The Conflict Zones hub collects WarBrief Live’s continuing coverage.

Frequently asked questions

Why did oil prices fall on October 26, 2026?
Brent and WTI each fell about 2% on Monday morning after Qatari mediators travelled to Tehran on Sunday, President Donald Trump said there would be no strike that day, and Brent’s 14-day relative strength index above 74 signalled overbought conditions that made profit-taking likely after a 6% weekly gain.

Are oil prices still above $100?
Yes. Brent traded at $114.51 and WTI at $101.04 in Monday morning trading on October 26, 2026, both well above $100 despite the roughly $2 fall from Friday’s closes.

Why did Murban crude rise while Brent fell?
Murban, which loads at Fujairah outside the Strait of Hormuz, climbed about 3.16% to roughly $118. Traders pay a premium for barrels that can avoid Hormuz while shipping risk remains, and that premium widened even as the headline benchmarks dipped.

Does Monday’s dip mean the oil crisis is over?
No. Attacks on Saudi targets continued over the weekend, analysts warned volatility would stay elevated with risks skewed to the upside, and market expectations of strikes after the November 3 midterm elections have not been dispelled. Monday looks like a pause in a volatile market, not a resolution.

What should US, UK and EU readers watch next?
Israel’s October 27 election, the Federal Reserve’s policy decision, and the November 3 United States midterms are the near-term triggers. Watch Brent’s Friday closes, the Murban premium over Brent, and any confirmed incident involving Saudi facilities or Hormuz shipping.

Sources

• Reuters via Tribune: Oil drops from near six-month highs on hopes Iran war hostilities to ease
• Bloomberg via Business Times: Oil declines from six-month high as traders assess Mideast risks
• Gulf News: Crude oil’s weird Monday: Brent, WTI slip as attacks rattle markets, Murban jumps 3% to $118
• Hindu BusinessLine: Brent crude falls after Friday’s close above $116 a barrel
• BusinessToday: Brent crude could ease to $80 as oil supplies recover from disruptions: Goldman Sachs
• Al Jazeera: Iran war updates: Trump says no strike today; Qatari mediators visit Tehran