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Gaza Ceasefire in Name Only: Toll Since October 2025 Reaches 1,580

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WarBrief Live | November 1, 2026 | Conflict Zone

Gaza’s ceasefire, in force since October 10, 2025, has not stopped the killing. Gaza’s Health Ministry reported on October 31, 2026, that 1,580 Palestinians have been killed and 5,711 wounded since it took effect. The deal’s second phase — disarmament, withdrawal and reconstruction — remains stalled.

Key Takeaways

  • 1,580 killed and 5,711 wounded in Gaza since the October 2025 ceasefire, per Gaza’s Health Ministry on October 31, 2026.
  • Six killed and 26 wounded in the 48 hours covered by that report.
  • Deadlock: Israel demands full disarmament before withdrawal; Hamas links disarmament to withdrawal.
  • Reconstruction has not begun, despite a $2.45 billion recovery plan presented in September 2026.

Overview: a truce that never became a peace

The October 2025 agreement halted full-scale operations and secured the release of the 20 remaining living Israeli hostages three days later, per Reuters. It did not end the violence: Israeli strikes have continued almost weekly since, per Gaza’s Health Ministry, whose figures the United Nations has considered reliable.

Under the initial terms, Israeli forces were to hold about 53 percent of Gaza behind a demarcation known as the Yellow Line. Reuters reported in October 2026 that they now control around two-thirds of the territory.

Key actors

Israel controls most of Gaza militarily and insists Hamas must completely disarm before any further withdrawal. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has rejected a phased approach, and the United States-led Board of Peace has stated full withdrawal beyond the Yellow Line will not take place until disarmament to which Hamas committed to mediators is completed.

Hamas announced in July 2026 that it was disbanding its governing body and handing administration to the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG), headed by Ali Shaath. Hamas says it is prepared to give up its weapons under an agreed process, but only if Israel meets its own obligations, including ending military operations and withdrawing its forces.

Mediators and the United Nations. Egypt, Qatar and Turkiye, alongside the Board of Peace, are trying to move the deal to its second phase. A 15-point roadmap presented on July 30, 2026, envisaged Hamas transferring functions to the NCAG and decommissioning heavy weapons under monitoring, linked to phased withdrawal. Israel rejected it, and the Crisis Group reports the NCAG has not yet governed in Gaza. The Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) warned on October 30, 2026, that Israeli forces were continuing to displace Palestinians, raising concerns about ethnic cleansing, as reported by Al Jazeera. That is the OHCHR’s warning, not a court finding.

Recent developments

  • October 31, 2026: Six Palestinians killed in the previous 48 hours — four newly killed and two who died of earlier wounds — and 26 wounded, bringing the toll since the ceasefire to 1,580 killed and 5,711 wounded, the Health Ministry said, via Al Jazeera.
  • October 31, 2026: Shelling hit Nuseirat refugee camp, killing teacher Diaa Abu al-Rous, al-Awda Hospital confirmed.
  • October 30, 2026: OHCHR warned Israeli forces were continuing to displace Palestinians in Gaza.
  • October 29, 2026: The ministry put the toll at 1,574 killed and 5,687 wounded, the Tribune reported — a rise of six deaths in two days.
  • July 30, 2026: The Board of Peace presented its 15-point disarmament and governance roadmap. Israel rejected it within days.

Current status: stalemate on every second-phase question

The deadlock is a sequencing dispute with no agreed order: disarmament first, says Israel; disarmament in lockstep with withdrawal, says Hamas. Until resolved, neither the envisaged International Stabilization Force nor the NCAG administration can deploy.

The humanitarian picture remains severe. The IPC reported more than 1.2 million people in Gaza still faced acute hunger, and that an average of 227 trucks a day carried supplies into Gaza to the end of May 2026 — less than half the 600 stipulated in the plan, per Reuters. Israel says around 600 trucks a day are now entering; aid agencies dispute that essential items are getting through. Reuters found reconstruction had not begun.

What to watch

Watch whether Washington presses both sides after the United States midterms on November 3, 2026. Analysts cited by Anadolu in October said coalition talks after Israel’s October 27 election could delay progress until early 2027 unless Washington intervenes. Watch also for any NCAG entry into Gaza — the first concrete second-phase step — and for the weekly ministry toll. The Crisis Group warns that without movement, the current division risks hardening permanently.

Read next: our Conflict Zones hub and our earlier Israel-Gaza profile.

Frequently asked questions

Is there still a ceasefire in Gaza?
Nominally, yes. The October 10, 2025 agreement remains in force with no return to full-scale operations, but strikes have continued and the ministry reports 1,580 killed since it began.

Why has reconstruction not started?
Reconstruction is tied to the stalled second phase. A $2.45 billion plan was presented in September 2026, but rebuilding has not begun while the disarmament dispute remains unresolved.

What is the Yellow Line?
The demarcation agreed in October 2025 separating areas held by Israeli forces from areas under Hamas control. Israeli forces initially held about 53 percent behind it; Reuters reported in October 2026 they now control around two-thirds.

Sources

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