NUCLEAR THREAT MONITOR

Real-time monitoring of the Iranian nuclear program, IAEA inspection reports, and breakout timeline estimates.

Breakout Timeline Estimate

Estimated time required to produce enough weapons-grade uranium (WGU) for a single nuclear explosive device. Current estimates are based on centrifuge capacity and stockpiles of 60% enriched uranium.

~12 DAYS
Confidence LevelHigh (90%)
CRITICALStatus

Enrichment Levels

60% U-235 Stockpile142.1 KG
20% U-235 Stockpile540.5 KG

IAEA Monitoring Status

Camera FeedsPARTIALLY RESTRICTED
On-site InspectionsACTIVE (QUARTERLY)

Strategic Sites Monitor

NATANZEnrichment
ACTIVE
FORDOWEnrichment
ACTIVE
ARAKHeavy Water
MONITORED
BUSHEHRPower Plant
ACTIVE
ISFAHANConversion
ACTIVE
PARCHINR&D
RESTRICTED

Threat Indicator

Recent technical reports suggest the installation of advanced IR-6 centrifuges at the Fordow facility, significantly increasing the potential breakout speed.

Alert Level: SEVERE

IAEA Reports

FEB 2026

Quarterly Safeguards Report

REF: GOV/2026/12
JAN 2026

Technical Monitoring Update

REF: GOV/INF/2026/04
NOV 2025

Director General Statement

REF: DG/2025/18